Some have suggested - based on the usual open source options that us armchair observers have access too - that Chinese shipbuilding of PLA Navy vessels has slowed down in 2010. Appearances can be deceiving though if you are not watching closely. First, it is important to remember we are in the final year of the Eleventh five year plan (2006-2010), and in the final year of these five year plans we typically do not find pictures of new classes of ships - rather we start seeing those pictures in the beginning of the five year plans.
For example, 052B and 052C destroyers were part of the Tenth five year plan (2001-2005) and they were basically built within that time frame, just like the 054s were laid down in the Tenth five year plan. However, it wasn't until the Eleventh five year plan (2006-2010) that we began to see the 054A air defense frigates.
While the new China report is dated 2010, we also need to keep in mind that it covers 2009, so it doesn't actually include the developments we are seeing this year. That means that next year, when we are reading the Pentagon's 2011 Chinese Military report we can expect it not to be discussing any new classes of ships - even if by next summer we are seeing photos of new classes of ships under construction in Chinese shipyards.
Surface Combatants
Lets look at a few examples, like this quote from page 3 of the report:
The PLA Navy continues its acquisition of domestically produced surface combatants. These include two LUYANG II-class (Type 052C) DDGs fitted with the indigenous HHQ-9 long-range surface-to-air missile (SAM); two LUZHOU-class (Type 051C) DDGs equipped with the Russian SA-N-20 long-range SAM; and four (soon to be six) JIANGKAI II-class (Type 054A) guided missile frigates (FFG) to be fitted with the medium-range HHQ-16 vertically launched naval SAM currently under development. These ships reflect the leadership’s priority on an advanced anti-air warfare capability for China’s naval forces, which has historically been a weakness of the fleet.By the end of 2009 China had launched six Jiangkai II class (Type 054A) guided missile frigates (FFGs), but as of pictures posted online this week China has actually launched 8 Type 054As, with a 9th at HuangPu shipyard in Guangzhou province looking like it could launch very soon (Looks like Feng already posted this). Given the tendency to build in numbers divisible by 5, that means a 10th Type 054A is likely to be launched by years end at Hudong Shipyard.
China appears to be producing a steady state of 2 Type 054As per year that will continue for the next 2 annual Pentagon reports. There may also be a new destroyer class under construction at JiangNan shipyard, but pictures are hard to come by lately. Given the significant upgrades to JiangNan shipyard during the Eleventh five year plan, it could be these ships are coming out at the end of the 5 year cycle delayed primarily due to the upgrades at the shipyard.
When examining the pictures of the Type 054As from HP and HD shipyards, one of the things that stands out to me is the new class of cutters for China's Maritime Safety Administration visible in some of the pictures, as well as several older cutters that appear to be getting electronic upgrades at the shipyards (another point Feng covered before I posted).
While not often a focus, the modernization and expansion of China's Maritime Safety Administration is a major aspect of the Eleventh five year plan that has largely gone unmentioned in the Pentagon's report. One would think after the incidents last year with the US Navy surveillance ships off the China coast that this would be something the Pentagon would mention in the report for Congress.
Missile Patrol Boats
One of the differences between the Pentagon's 2009 report and the Pentagon's 2010 report is the number of Houbei class fast missile boats. The 2009 report states "more than 40" while the 2010 report claims China has "deployed some 60" of the wave-piercing catamaran hull missile patrol boats. In the vacuum of annual Pentagon reports, China somehow managed to add 20 high speed missile patrol boats each with 4 anti-ship missiles a piece (80 new anti-ship missiles fielded to sea in a single years analysis).
Over the same period, the US Navy has exactly ZERO anti-ship missile programs fielding exactly ZERO modern anti-ship missiles on our naval ships. What exactly is the point of building large capacity naval warships in the US if we aren't developing or fielding the missiles necessary to fill the VLS cells? It is a factual statement to point out that the only extended range weapon system for surface combatants currently in development by the US Navy is the gun system to be mounted on the DDG-1000. Maybe the Zumwalt is intended to be the US Navy's Houbei killer - since neither the Arleigh Burke class nor the Littoral Combat Ships will have the weapons capable of performing that role.
Submarines
The Pentagon's 2010 report summarizes the PLA Navy submarine force as follows:
China continues production of its newest JIN-class (Type 094) nuclear powered ballistic missile submarine (SSBN). China may field up to five new SSBNs. One JINclass SSBN has entered service alongside two new SHANG-class (Type 093) nuclearpowered attack submarines (SSN), four older HAN-class SSNs, and China’s single XIA-class SSBN.The only difference worth noting is the DoD now counts an additional Yuan class submarine as operational. There have not been many new open source pictures of submarines this year, so it is unclear if there is a 5th Yuan running around somewhere.
China is further expanding its current force of nuclear-powered attack submarines and may add up to five advanced Type 095 SSNs to the inventory in the coming years.
China has 13 SONG-class (Type 039) diesel-electric attack submarines (SS) in its inventory. The SONG-class SS is designed to carry the YJ-82 ASCM. The follow-on to the SONG is the YUAN-class SS, as many as four of which are already in service. China may plan to construct 15 additional hulls for this class. The YUANclass SS are armed similarly to the SONGclass SS, but also include a possible air independent propulsion system. The SONG SS, YUAN SS, and SHANG SSN will be capable of launching the new CH-SS-NX-13 ASCM, once the missile completes development and testing.
Noteworthy is the Pentagon reports mention of the Type 095 SSN. That could mean that the Pentagon is aware of its construction. That would suggest the PLA Navy built only two Type 093s before starting construction of the Type 095s.
Aircraft Carriers
The Pentagon report statement:
China has an aircraft carrier research and design program, which includes continued renovations to the former Soviet Kuznetsov-class Hull-2, the ex-VARYAG. Beginning in early 2006 with the release of China’s 11th Five Year Plan (2006-2010), PRC-owned media reported high-level government and military official statements on China’s intent to build aircraft carriers. In April 2009 PRC Navy Commander Admiral Wu Shengli stated that “China will develop its fleet of aircraft carriers in a harmonious manner. We will prudently decide the policy [we will follow with regard to building aircraft carriers]. I am willing to listen to the views of experts from the navies of other countries and to seek opinions from our country.” While meeting with Japanese Defense Minister Yasukazu Hamada in March 2009, PRC Minister of Defense General Liang Guanglie stressed that China is the only big nation that does not have aircraft carriers and stated that “China cannot be without aircraft carriers forever.”Based on the pictures that continue to pop up all over the Chinese internet, it seems pretty clear to me that the Varyag will be able to get to sea by the end of next year. That will only be the beginning of the training and learning curve for China regarding aircraft carriers though.
China continues to show interest in procuring Su-33 carrier-borne fighters from Russia. Since 2006 China and Russia had been in negotiations for the sale of 50 Su-33 Flanker-D fighters at a cost of up to $2.5 billion. These negotiations reportedly stalled after Russia refused a request from China for an initial delivery of two trial aircraft. Russian defense ministry sources confirmed that the refusal was due to findings that China had produced its own copycat version of the Su-27SK fighter jet.
The PLA Navy has reportedly decided to initiate a program to train 50 navy pilots to operate fixed-wing aircraft from an aircraft carrier. In May 2009, Brazilian Defense Minister Nelson Jobim announced that the Brazilian Navy would provide training to PLA Navy officers in aircraft carrier operations.
Analysts in and out of government project that China will not have an operational, domestically produced carrier and associated ships before 2015. However, changes in China’s shipbuilding capability and degree of foreign assistance to the program could alter those projections. In March 2009, PLA Navy Admiral Wu Huayang stated that “China is capable of building aircraft carriers. We have such strength. Building aircraft carriers requires economic and technological strength. Given the level of development in our country, I think we have such strength.” The PLA Navy is considering building multiple carriers by 2020.
I strongly suspect, based on various writings and activities, that there is already some advanced construction for parts taking place for a domestically produced carrier. With that said, my guess would be we won't see evidence of shipyard construction of a domestically produced aircraft carrier for some time with funding for the first carrier provided by the Twelfth five year plan (2011-2015).
Measurements
The 2010 Pentagon report makes PLAN shipbuilding predictions based on analysis, for example, when discussing Type 095 SSNs the report says China "may add up to five advanced Type 095 SSNs to the inventory in the coming years." When discussing the Type 041 Yuan class the report states "China may plan to construct 15 additional hulls for this class." When measuring China in 5 year plans, the next of which is set to begin next year, the report suggests China is about to build some 20 submarines while refraining from giving a time line. Between 2005-2010 China added 16 new submarines to their force - but 8 of those submarines were KILO-class imports, plus 4 Type 041s, 2 Type 094s, and 2 Types 093s. It is unclear what type, if any, submarines China is launching this year. There is speculation China will launch a 3rd Type 094 and a 5th Type 041 this year, meaning China's submarine production is currently averaging 2 per year.
The Pentagon's report may not be accurate with its projections of submarine construction, but I think the assessment is valuable for analysis even if it does turn out inaccurate. The question I have is whether anyone can predict what the 5 year plan for the PLA Navy will be for 2011-2015 based on the information available through open sources? There are 6 shipyards to work with - give it a shot in the comments.
Dalian Shipbuilding CorporationThis is the Military Power of the People’s Republic of China 2006 (PDF) Pentagon report if you would like to compare the five years from 2005-2009 (remember, 2010 report is about 2009).
ex-Varyag upgrade
New Aircraft Carrier?
Surface Combatants?
Shanghai Jiangnan Changxing Shipbuilding Base
New Aircraft Carrier?
Surface Combatants?
Huangpu Shipbuilding Corporation
Surface Combatants?
Hudong Shipbuilding Company
Type 071s?
Surface Combatants?
Bohai Shipbuilding Heavy Industry Co. (formerly known as Huludao)
Nuclear submarines?
Wuchang Shipbuilding Industry Co.
Type 041s?
I think this is a useful exercise for any analyst, because when you give serious thought to the exercise you can then compare it to the US Navy 5-year shipbuilding plan. Naval power is a lot more than equipment though, and if you have seen the articles that interview sailors working in their new Type 054A frigates you will note how surprised they sound when discussing all their new technology.
Those articles suggest the PLA Navy still has a huge learning curve they can't buy off the shelf.
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